Augmented Phillips Curve

A Phillips-curve framework that adds inflation expectations to the inflation-unemployment relationship.

The augmented Phillips curve is a version of the Phillips curve that says inflation depends not only on unemployment or slack, but also on what people expect inflation to be.

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The core idea

The original Phillips curve suggested a stable trade-off between inflation and unemployment. The expectations-augmented version changed that view by showing that if workers and firms expect higher inflation, wage and price setting will build that expectation into actual inflation.

A simple version is:

$$ \pi_t = \pi_t^e - \alpha (u_t - u_n) + s_t $$

where (\pi_t) is inflation, (\pi_t^e) expected inflation, (u_t) unemployment, (u_n) the natural rate, and (s_t) a supply shock.

Why it matters

The model implies there is no permanent trade-off between inflation and unemployment if expectations adjust. Policymakers may push unemployment below its sustainable level temporarily, but inflation will keep rising if expectations catch up.

Policy significance

This framework was central to the critique of naive demand management in the 1970s. It shifted macroeconomics toward expectations, credibility, and the distinction between short-run and long-run Phillips curves.

Knowledge Check

### What does the augmented Phillips curve add to the original Phillips curve? - [x] Inflation expectations - [ ] A fixed money supply - [ ] A balanced budget rule - [ ] A stock market index > **Explanation:** The key innovation is that expected inflation affects current wage and price setting. ### Why is the long-run Phillips curve vertical in this framework? - [x] Because expectations adjust, eliminating any permanent unemployment-inflation trade-off - [ ] Because unemployment can never change - [ ] Because inflation is always zero - [ ] Because supply shocks disappear > **Explanation:** Once expected inflation catches up, lower unemployment cannot be maintained without ever-higher inflation. ### A rise in expected inflation, holding other things equal, tends to: - [x] raise actual inflation - [ ] lower all prices permanently - [ ] eliminate the natural rate - [ ] make unemployment irrelevant > **Explanation:** Expectations feed into wage bargaining and price setting, shifting the curve upward.